Sunday, July 22, 2012

Young guns enter the sport’s biggest stage at Tour de France 2012 but allow the top spot to Senior Cyclist


When Bradley Wiggins crossed the finishing line on the Champs-Élysées in Paris Sunday afternoon he became the first British rider to win Le Tour de France. The Englishman is one of the oldest first-time winners of the Tour. In all the 99 editions of Le Tour only 9 riders have been older than Bradley Wiggins’ 32 years 85 days when they won their first tour.
But modern cycling with its technology, team tactics, media attention and price money is hard to compare with the riders of yore who rode grueling 600 km stages on heavy machines with no gearing. Therefore it is only fair to limit the frame of reference to the era of Modern Cycling which by some accounts can be dated to 1965.
The average age for first-time winners of the Tour de France since 1965 is 27 years 274 days. The diagram below shows the evolution of the age of first-time winners in the modern age of cycling.





Only three other riders in the modern era have been older than Bradley Wiggins when they won their first tour. In that light it’s a bit odd that this year’s Tour will be remembered for the many young riders who made their entrance on the sports’ biggest stage.


Cycling is a young man's sport, again!


While the Tour has seen a lot of new faces this year -with the age to dominate and fight for podium spots in the decade to come- the average age of the Top 10 remains fundamentally stable over time.
The average age for riders who finished in the Top 10 of this year’s Tour was remarkably similar to the average age of Top 10 finishers ten years ago when Lance Armstrong won his fourth of seven consecutive victories. In 2002 the average age was 28 years and 311 days, while this year it was less than a month lower at 28 years and 283 days. The major difference between ten years ago and today is in the age difference.
At 30 years 314 days Lance Armstrong was the elderly statesman in 2002, while the youngest rider in the Top 10 was Francisco Mancebo at 26 years 141 days. Only 4 years 173 days separated them.
This year defending champion Cadel Evans was the oldest in the Top 10 at 35 years 158 days, with French revelation, Thibaut Pinot, showing huge potential at only 22 years 55 days. So the age disparity in the Top 10 of this year’s tour is a monumental 13 years 104 days. So in other words, age disparity of the Top 10 has almost tripled in the last ten years.
What accounts for this huge difference? Is it because the Tour has become better at fighting doping? Or is it because this year was the first year of a new generation of riders with the old guard still not ready to hang up their cleats?


Thursday, July 19, 2012

Has the NFLs growth stagnated?


This week Forbes announced its annual List of The World’s 50 Most Valuable Sports Teams. As has been the case since the inception of the list, English soccer club Manchester United sits a top the list. The estimated value of Manchester United is $2.23bn and the second Most Valuable Team is the Spanish soccer club Real Madrid. Only in third place do we find an American franchise (the New York Yankees).
A breakdown of the different leagues represented looks like this:


League
# Teams
European Soccer *
7
MLB
7
NFL
32
NBA
2
Formula 1
2

            * While the UEFA Champions League serve as a European soccer league the teams play most of their games in their respective national leagues.

Lists like The World's 50 Most Valuable Sports Teams are not that useful by themselves. In order to say something meaningful you have to compare them with something. And what better comparison than the list as it looked in 2010 when it was first compiled?
A few trends emerge:


  • Soccer clubs Juventus and Liverpool have been replaced by the MLB Teams Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers.
  • In 2012 there are only 23 teams with a value above $1bn as opposed to 25 teams 2 years ago
  • While most of the soccer clubs where in the bottom half in 2010, 5 out of 7 are now among the 11 most valuable teams



The most interesting part is looking at growth. If we assume that no money has been withdrawn to pay dividends or profit to owners, we can look at the annualized growth of each team. Even though the Los Angeles Dodgers is sixth on the total value list, their annualized growth has been an amazing 39.02% in the period 2010-2012.


The Growth Top 10 looks like this.
Value
Team
2012*
Annual growth
6
Los Angeles Dodgers
1,405
39.02%
35
Los Angeles Lakers
900
21.77%
2
Real Madrid
1,880
19.34%
43
New York Knicks
780
15.37%
8
FC Barcelona
1,310
14.46%
11
Bayern München
1,230
11.46%
27
AC Milan
989
11.19%
1
Manchester United
2,230
10.39%
36
Chicago Cubs
879
10.03%
46
Chelsea
761
8.54%












* Mill. USD


Even though the NFL dominates the list of The World’s 50 Most Valuable Sports Teams, no NFL Franchise is able to compete when it comes to growth. The problems concerning the Collective Bargaining Agreement that was negotiated in 2011 probably plays a part in this. So maybe the fairytale that has been the NFL's growth spurt has come to an end.
From a business point of view it is troubling that it’s enough to generate 8.54% growth over 2 years to be one of the Top 10 of Growth for the 50 Most Valuable Sports Teams. But the most worrying aspect of the Growth list is that 17 teams generated negative growth. Worst of these were the Jacksonville Jaguars who went through a change of ownership while losing on average 8.50% of its value per year.

The full statistical material including 2010 value, 2012 value and calculated annual growth can be found below.



Place
Team
2010
2012
Growth
1
Manchester United
1,830
2,230
10.39%
2
Real Madrid
1,320
1,880
19.34%
3
New York Yankees
1,600
1,855
7.67%
4
Dallas Cowboys
1,650
1,850
5.89%
5
Washington Redskins
1,550
1,560
0.32%
6
Los Angeles Dodgers
727
1,405
39.02%
7
New England Patriots
1,360
1,400
1.46%
8
Barcelona
1,000
1,310
14.46%
9
New York Giants
1,180
1,300
4.96%
10
Arsenal
1,180
1,290
4.56%
11
Bayern München
990
1,230
11.46%
12
New York Jets
1,170
1,230
2.53%
13
Houston Texans
1,150
1,200
2.15%
14
Philadelphia Eagles
1,120
1,160
1.77%
15
Ferrari
1,050
1,100
2.35%
16
Chicago Bears
1,080
1,090
0.46%
17
Green Bay Packers
1,020
1,090
3.37%
18
Baltimore Ravens
1,080
1,090
0.46%
19
Indianapolis Colts
1,030
1,060
1.45%
20
Denver Broncos
1,080
1,050
-1.40%
21
Pittsburgh Steelers
1,020
1,020
0.00%
22
Miami Dolphins
1,020
1,010
-0.49%
23
Carolina Panthers
1,050
1,000
-2.41%
24
Boston Red Sox
870
1,000
7.21%
25
Seattle Seahawks
994
997
0.15%
26
San Francisco 49'ers
875
990
6.37%
27
AC Milan
800
989
11.19%
28
Kansas City Chiefs
1,030
986
-2.16%
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1,090
981
-5.13%
30
Cleveland Browns
1,030
977
-2.61%
31
New Orleans Saints
942
965
1.21%
32
Tennessee Titans
1,000
964
-1.82%
33
San Diego Chargers
917
920
0.16%
34
Arizona Cardinals
935
901
-1.84%
35
Los Angeles Lakers
607
900
21.77%
36
Chicago Cubs
726
879
10.03%
37
Cincinnati Bengals
953
875
-4.18%
38
Detroit Lions
867
844
-1.34%
39
Atlanta Falcons
856
814
-2.48%
40
McLaren
805
800
-0.31%
41
Minnesota Vikings
835
796
-2.36%
42
Buffalo Bills
909
792
-6.66%
43
New York Knicks
586
780
15.37%
44
St. Louis Rams
913
775
-7.87%
45
Oakland Raiders
797
761
-2.28%
46
Chelsea
646
761
8.54%
47
Jacksonville Jaguars
866
725
-8.50%
48
Philadelphia Phillies
n/a
723
n/a
49
New York Mets
858
719
-8.46%
50
Texas Rangers
n/a
674
n/a


* Mill. USD